2025 Hudson River Striped Bass was poor

For the 3rd year in a row, the Hudson River YOY abundance was below the 25th which tripped the ASMFC Amendment 7 Low Recruitment trigger!! And for those of you who are "graphically challenged" this is the 1st time on record that there have been 3 consecutive YOY classes below the 25% so yeah, it is a big deal!!

What they'll do is debatable, but I'd love for them to have New York SHUT DOWN ALL FISHING in the Hudson during the spawn!! The fact that NY is the only state that allows fishing in the spawning area during the spawn these days is unfathomable.

Now all states that do YOY abundance screenings are in Low Recruitment shithole, VA, MD, and NJ and nobody has a solid reason for the crash, so let's keep arguing about silly-short term items like whether or not the 9% mortality rate for recretional release is too high, whether or not the For Hire fleet should be allowed to keep an extra fish, what should the slot be etc., because:
NONE OF THESE THINGS WILL HELP THE IMPENDING CRASH OF STRIPED BASS!!!
But go ahead, keep harping on these futile issues and ignore the fact that the whole fishery is going down the crapper in a few years, and even IF we get excellent few spawns in the next couple of years, some of us "elders" probably won't live see to see that rebound.

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I do agree with you, Roccus, that fishing for a fish during its spawning period in their spawning area is suicidal and something needs to be done on a more targeted basis.

Overall, I am still suspicious of most of the data presented to us as we know that many of the collection methods are severely flawed. Like sampling in the same areas year after year while we know that fish and their forage do move around. A more thorough sampling over a larger area would at least give me more confidence in the accuracy of the numbers.

I am also concerned about the ability of any good statistician being able to manipulate numbers to make things appear one way or another. I am not accusing you of doing this, Roccus. But if I look at the big picture of the twenty years shown on this study there are plenty of years where the average and trends look to be fairly healthy. I also see no more than one year at a time where the stocks are low, followed by a few good years. We may be on the low side over the last three years in this graph but at least it is trending upwards again.

Am I just an eternal optimist or "graphically challenged"?🤔

I believe Mike's assertions are spot on!

Most other species have changed their habits but the Striped Bass still breeds in the same areas it did for the last 100years? Sorry. I think fish are more instinctive than to lay eggs where they'll die. And when it comes to data collection,you gotta do better than a 100' seine being dragged around by 2 non-fishermen.

I do agree that the spring spawn North of the GW needs to be protected as well as the Raritan Bay area where alot of those big females start feeding in spring.

OK, maybe many of you are not aware how the YOY studies are done and what they do/don't say.

They are done in the late fall seining multiple times in multiple locations of the nursery, looking for the fish from that spring's spawn. The numbers reported are the average of all these data. Below is how MD does the study, and for those of you that wonder about the possibility that the fish are hanging out elsewhere, they did a sanity check this year which is presented below with my emphasis.

• MD Survey Method: Since the 1950s, DNR has used 100-foot seine nets to sample 22 sites in key spawning areas: Choptank, Nanticoke, Potomac rivers, and the Upper Chesapeake Bay.
  
  During this annual survey, fishery managers sample 22 sites located in four major striped bass spawning areas: the Choptank, Nanticoke, and Potomac rivers, and the upper Chesapeake Bay. Biologists visit each site three times per summer, collecting fish with two sweeps of a 100-foot beach seine net. The index represents the average number of 3-inch or less juvenile striped bass caught in each sweep of the net.
  
  Similar fish surveys were conducted this summer in the Patapsco, Magothy, Severn, Rhode, West, and Tred Avon rivers, and St. Clements and Breton bays. Those surveys, which were conducted outside the annual survey locations, found even fewer young-of-year striped bass.

MD has run the studies since the 1950s. I'm not sure if NY did it prior to 1983, and I think VA is the close to or the same as MD. I have no idea for NJ.

Since the surveys are done in the fall and just look for juvenile fish, the data represents how many little stripers there are. It does not:

• Tell us how many adult fish were in the spawning area
  
  
• Tell us how many eggs were laid nor how many eggs hatched
  
  
• Tell us how many hatchlings perished over the summer by predation, starvation or environmental issues
  
  
• It just tells us the abundance of Year Old Striped Bass in a particular year, and can be evaluated against the historical results

If any of you can suggest a better or more complete study to figure out how many striped bass spawn in a particular striper nursery let's hear it. Regardless, I'll bet if you, like me, measure every striped bass you catch and record the data, you will see that the average size fish you've caught over the past 5 years has gone up, and you've seen far less small (young) fish. Personally I haven't caught less than a 20" fish in 3 seasons, when in prior seasons that would be my average sized fish. Therefore it's a fact that few, if any smaller fish are in the striped bass population and these YOY studies provide accurate data.

Some of you may say that "I've heard that there are fish spawning in another area not surveyed". If you could provide the name of the river with a confirmatory state from that state's fisheries organization, GREAT!! So far none of these "I've heard..." comments has been confirmed. You must also keep in mind that 80-90%of our striped bass come from the Chesapeake Watershed with the remainder from the Hudson watershed. So if there is anything more than trivial spawn from other rivers, it would have been witnessed and confirmed by state organizations. Look at Maine, the Kennebec River had a very strong spawning population which crashed in the 70s, and there was a transfer of a good number of Hudson River fish which did reestablish a spawn that went pretty well for maybe 20 years, but that has seemed to be disappear. I haven't seen any data on that in 4 or so years.

Sorry how will a complete shutdown help with the spawning numbers?

The public believes what they see. And what they see are a healthy fishery her in NY. So healthy that the sheer numbers of fish are more than most have seen in their lifetime.

The graph, at best shows inconsistent spawning numbers.

We want to close the most reliable upon fishery on the East Coast because of that? I completely disagree.

I'll also add that there are plenty of spawning sized fish around. Let's address the loss of spawning habitat and not blame fishing for all those bad stats. Starting to sound like PETA.

Sorry how will a complete shutdown help with the spawning numbers?

The problem is that nobody knows what's causing the YOY numbers to be down coastwide, It might not help at all, but momentary spawn area closure couldn't hurt. I'm far from even suggesting a complete shutdown, just suggesting no fishing during the spawn in the Hudson Nursery. NY & NJ are the only states to continue to allow it while MD & VA have shut it down for a couple of years now.

Aye, there is the rub, there's no hints that the spawn fishing shutdown have improved the YOY, which strongly suggests there are other factors at play. What infuriates me is it seems that all efforts on striped bass are focused on anything BUT trying to figure out why the YOY are down coastwide!! We seem to spend our time discussing other issues like slots, closures, commercial regulation, etc. and NOT focusing the scientists to figure WTF striped bass can't generate significant numbers of healthy young fish. Any effort not directed at that are futile.

No matter what one wants to say, the YOY data, which are very valid, point out that we're about to go over the edge of the cliff. We are the the epitome of Nero fiddling while Rome burned...

What infuriates me is it seems that all efforts on striped bass are focused on anything BUT trying to figure out why the YOY are down coastwide!! We seem to spend our time discussing other issues like slots, closures, commercial regulation, etc.

I agree 150%! We're treating the symptom and not the disease.

I believe Mike's assertions are spot on!

Most other species have changed their habits but the Striped Bass still breeds in the same areas it did for the last 100years? Sorry. I think fish are more instinctive than to lay eggs where they'll die. And when it comes to data collection,you gotta do better than a 100' seine being dragged around by 2 non-fishermen.

I do agree that the spring spawn North of the GW needs to be protected as well as the Raritan Bay area where alot of those big females start feeding in spring.

"I do agree that the spring spawn North of the GW needs to be protected as well as the Raritan Bay area where alot of those big females start feeding in spring"
We don't know whether a female, caught and released, will then spawn, or take a pass!

The problem is that nobody knows what's causing the YOY numbers to be down coastwide, It might not help at all, but momentary spawn area closure couldn't hurt. I'm far from even suggesting a complete shutdown, just suggesting no fishing during the spawn in the Hudson Nursery. NY & NJ are the only states to continue to allow it while MD & VA have shut it down for a couple of years now.

Aye, there is the rub, there's no hints that the spawn fishing shutdown have improved the YOY, which strongly suggests there are other factors at play. What infuriates me is it seems that all efforts on striped bass are focused on anything BUT trying to figure out why the YOY are down coastwide!! We seem to spend our time discussing other issues like slots, closures, commercial regulation, etc. and NOT focusing the scientists to figure WTF striped bass can't generate significant numbers of healthy young fish. Any effort not directed at that are futile.

No matter what one wants to say, the YOY data, which are very valid, point out that we're about to go over the edge of the cliff. We are the the epitome of Nero fiddling while Rome burned...

First, I have to agree that as plentiful as the Bass have been for some time now on the North Fork, it is true that there is most definitely a dramatic fall off in smaller fish. Wehn, we got slapped with the narrow 3", 28-31 slot many thought that would hurt badly. In my experience it has not been much of a problem at all. What has been occurring regularly is catching too many "over slot sized fish".

As usual, Roccus, you make some great points and back it up with the best science available, And I greatly appreciate the education concerning the methods used by different states when it comes to making their estimates like YOY or extrapolating their numbers to guess the overall size of the biomass.

What is confusing to me is that every time I attend a DEC meeting and the issue of measuring the health of the Striped Bass population in NY is discussed, the "scientists" continue to admit they are making very small samplings in the same area year after year. As we all seem to be alluding to, what we really need are more true "scientists" and fewer politically motivated statisticians. Until we can truly figure out why the juvenile Bass have such a low survival rate we are all "chasing our tails"!

If the Striped Bass fishery is " about to fall off a cliff ", what should be done?

The reality is regulators are going to let it fall off the cliff before enacting "emergency" measures and we all know it will be too little, too late (see cod, flounder, bluefish)

Why don't you all go and look at the striped bass act of 1979 and 1984 and realize that the ASMFC was set up to find the answer to this problem so the fact is they did a horrible job as almost 50 years later they have no answers. and people realize there management might be the reason other fisheries have failed.the ASMFC is now going to open up
Maryland catch and release fishery for the spawners which had been closed for years so i guess the ASMFC answer to the yoy crisis is to let them be targeted after an ocean journey from as far away as maine full of millions of eggs will help the yoy this is insane

Closing spawning areas is a smart and obvious action. Perhaps too obvious for fisheries scientists to see.

Closing spawning areas is a smart and obvious action. Perhaps too obvious for fisheries scientists to see.

Closing the Hudson to the spawn has always been frequently "suggested" to NY, but since those waters are entirely within NY State inland borders, NY has to agree and there are many influential NYers, including for hire captains based up over the Tappan Zee, and some members here, who constantly resist. it

Then you look at Raritan Bay which is in NJ, and the "Garden State" historically fights any striped bass conservation measures tooth and nail.

In fairness, it took years of negotiation for MD and VA to "come to Jesus", so now only NY & NJ remain as bastions of heresy.

So yes, it's obvious, but you can't fix STOOPID. Regardless, there's always hope.

What's ironic is that at this point, fishing during the spawn is no longer the primary objective; we must figure out why more more fish don't survive their first summer in their natal nurseries...

One thing I did see this fall after returning from a tog trip there were acres of birds off Coney Island, as far as you could see with fish busting everywhere towards the VZ bridge. Dropped a shad rig to catch dinner and we had 4 on. All 20-24" fish. First time I've seen that in a while.

Not sure what year class that would be but it does bode well for the next several year I would think. Looking at the graph, the jump from 2006-2007 has me hopeful that we'll be surprised in the next few years.

One could only hope nature resets and man doesn't f$&k it up!

CCA in Maryland along with saltwater guides association has pushed Maryland to open spawning area check your facts and ASMFC gave them ok

I’m not denying the numbers look bad. They do. But does anyone really think reducing us any more is going to help at all?

We have already been squeezed into a tiny box. Tight slots, constant rule changes, fewer fish, smaller windows. For years we were told protecting the big spawners was going to lead to better year classes. The big breeders have been protected. The harvest has been cut. The rules got tighter. How’s that worked out so far.

So at what point do we admit that coming after the recreational angler is not the answer. Something else is going on. Distribution, timing, forage, predators, environment, whatever it is, but it is bigger than the guy on the rail.

Before anyone screams shutdown, how about we figure out what is actually driving the weak year classes instead of pretending one more cut to anglers will magically fix it.

They've had decades to figure this out yet all we get are outdated numbers and recycled solutions that never worked.

This either ends up in a total collapse or everyone was wrong, the fish are just spawning somewhere else or at different times... And numbers stay strong. Hoping for the latter.....

ASMFC has failed the east coast it is time to give control to noaa like rest of United States to much power was given to this group with no oversight they have failed everyone commercial recreational party charter boats and bait stores or anyone that wants to eat seafood

They've had decades to figure this out yet all we get are outdated numbers and recycled solutions that never worked.

This either ends up in a total collapse or everyone was wrong, the fish are just spawning somewhere else or at different times... And numbers stay strong. Hoping for the latter.....

Size distribution strongly suggests that the latter is nothing but a Hail Mary Dream...

the expert from Maine has spoken