Now we're throwing in a new variable. Rainwater.
I have yet to see a good yoy actual turn into a good year class. It's the most unscientific science there is. This micro managing is screwing everything up. This fish came back when we eliminated the coms and went to one fish over 36 inches.
I can't speak to Chesapeake spawns, but the Hudson is loaded with spawning fish.
George:
You're treading on some pretty well-documented science. The salinity of the water during the spawn has been discussed in the scientific literature for years. To develop and hatch, striper eggs must bounce along the bottom. I can provide you with multiple publications showing this if you care to read them. The GOOD news here is when the water conditions are perfect, a smaller number of spawning fish can provide an epic Young of Year class. Conversely, a river full of spawning fish could have a very poor spawn if there's been too much rain. Let's see how this year pans out. The meteorological folks have reported a damp spring in the Chesapeake watershed, much the same as the past 3 which have had poor Young Of Year (YOY) classes. Based on this, everyone is predicting a poor spawn. In the fall we'll find out how that shakes out.
The Chesapeake YOY study is done every year and has been going on since the 50s IF my memory is correct. The take X number of seinings in the same spot every year during the fall and count the number of baby stripers. The data have been very good about predicting things "down the line". AAMOF, the year Bobby Rochetta broke the all tackle record, it was well known amongst all the Montauk/Orient Point pin hookers that the year class, whatever it was, was really big and the record would probably fall that year, something that Bobby did.
Personally, I've been "tracking" the 2015 class here too, as it's made up the majority of my catch and I have been watching it grow. I've been averaging 4 or so keepers a year until 2020 when I got 13, all around 28", and a bunch of 27" fish. Last year that number jumped to over 40, most 28 - 29" and a couple of low 30s, and many 27". This year I'm already at 20 fish 28" or better, and a bunch at 31" and a couple of 32" fish returned. If you look at any of the charts that have length/weight/age data, it's clear that these fish are the Class of 2015.
This year, a majority of my fish are hovering around 24", which would mark them as 2017 YOY, another very good year. All data of these data bears out that YOY does predict future fishing.
I know many here are upset with the slot and the narrowing of it. As someone who went through the crash of the 80s and now enjoying some very decent striper fishing, I'm fine with it. Then again, I get to fish every day and how many stripers can someone eat? At this point, I still think ASMFC is doing a decent job. Are they perfect, hell no, but nobody is.
Also, I don't depend on fishing for income, and I'm painfully aware that Charter/Party boat operations are continually bombarded with tough restrictions, and it seems that ASMFC is pretty oblivious to the fact that many folks like to fish to stock the freezer, and restrictions on fluke, BSB, stripers, bluefish, etc. have made things made their lives difficult, and there's another disaster on the horizon, porgies!! As the pool of other fish has dried up, more and more pressure has been put on scup. WTH are these operations going to do when ASMFC stomps down on porgy retention? I truly shudder when I think about it.
