Weakfish crash Fire Island surf as bay temps hit 68 degrees

The water's telling a story this week, and it's one I've been waiting all season to hear. Bay temps finally cracked 68 degrees while the ocean side is holding steady at 64 — that four-degree gradient is like a dinner bell for everything with fins, and they're answering the call.

The big news is weakfish. Real weakfish, not the rumors we've been chasing since May. A 26-inch, 7.3-pound beauty came out of the Fire Island Inlet surf on a 9-inch Gravity Tackle Sand Eel, and where there's one fish like that, there's more. I've been working the inlet mouth at sunset on the outgoing, throwing sand eel patterns tight to the channel edges. The weakies are staging where the warm bay water meets the cooler ocean — classic thermal break fishing. Use a fishfinder rig with just enough weight to hold bottom, and let that sand eel work in the current.

Fluke fishing has been lights-out consistent. The Captree fleet is putting limits in the box daily, working the 25 to 35-foot depths off the Robert Moses bridges. White Gulp Swimming Mullets on 3/4-ounce bucktails are the ticket — drag them slow on the drift, feeling for that telltale thump. The key is staying mobile. First drift produces, great. Second drift is quiet, move 100 yards and try again. These fish are stacked but they're not everywhere.

Sand eels are the common thread in everything that's working right now. The bait is thick in the bay — you can see them dimpling the surface on calm mornings — and they're getting flushed out on the big tides. We're three days past new moon, so the spring tides are still running hard. That's pushing massive amounts of bait through the inlet, and everything from weakfish to stripers is waiting in ambush.

The surf has been productive for those willing to walk. Democrat Point to Smith Point, focus on the cuts and troughs on the incoming tide. First light and last light are prime time. I've been throwing 2-ounce bucktails with white or chartreuse teasers, working them just fast enough to stay off the bottom. The bass are there — mostly slot fish with the occasional over — but you need to cover water to find them.

Captree's party fleet continues to deliver mixed bags. Sea bass limits are routine in 40 to 60 feet, with ling cod and porgies filling out the coolers. Diamond jigs in gold or silver are producing, but don't overlook clam strips on high-low rigs when the bite gets finicky. The blackfish bite has been spotty but improving as we get deeper into summer.

What's got me excited for the coming week is this weather pattern. High pressure is building, winds are backing off to the northwest, and that's going to clean up the water even more. The thermal structure should hold steady, keeping that bait concentrated around the inlet. Full moon is Friday, which means monster tides and serious water movement.

I'm watching for the first real push of bunker into the bay. The water temp is right, the bait is staging, and once those peanuts start flooding in on the big tides, everything changes. That's when the bass fishing goes from good to stupid good, and the weakfish bite could explode into something special.

For the weekend, focus on the inlet. Fish the incoming tide for fluke on the ocean side, then swing around to the bay side for the outgoing and work sand eel patterns for weakfish. The Robert Moses area has been consistent, but don't sleep on the deeper holes in the main channel. Sometimes the biggest fish are where you least expect them.