Fluke slide out of the bay and into Double Creek Channel as flats push past 78 degrees

Last week the bay did what it does every July when the wind goes quiet and the sun sits on it for a stretch — it cooked. The flats down around Good Luck Point and across toward Cedar Creek pushed into the upper 70s, and by Thursday I was seeing water that felt more like bathwater than something you'd want to wade. That's not a knock on the fishing, it's just physics — warm, thin bay water holds less oxygen and pushes bait and gamefish alike toward anything cooler and deeper. That's exactly what happened. The fluke that were scattered across the open bay in June have been shouldering their way into Double Creek Channel, the deeper cuts off Tices Shoal, and the inlet itself, where the tide keeps things moving and the ocean is feeding in cleaner, cooler water on every push.

This week the moon is sliding toward new — full new moon lines up right around the 11th to 13th — which means spring tides building through the weekend. Bigger swings, stronger current, and more water moving through the inlet on both ends of the tide. That's the kind of setup that wakes up a bay that's gone sluggish in the heat. I'd expect the evening high tide to start syncing up nicer with sunset by Saturday and Sunday, which is prime time for stripers working the inlet rocks and the mouth of the channel — bigger tide, more current, more bait pushed past the rocks right as the light goes low and the fish get bold. Wind's been mild out of the southwest most days, nothing that's roiled anything up, and I don't see a front coming through to change that before the weekend.

Double Creek Channel has been the most consistent producer for fluke, and it's not close. Eight to twelve feet of water, moving current, and enough current break along the edges to hold bait. I've been dragging half-ounce to three-quarter-ounce white bucktails tipped with a four-inch chartreuse Gulp Swimming Mullet right along the channel edges on the outgoing tide, letting it bump bottom and sweep with the current rather than fighting it. Fish have been running 16 to 20 inches mostly, with a few keepers mixed in over 18, but nothing close to what that 12-pound doormat weighed in up at Bayonne a couple weeks back — that's a different animal from a different stretch of water entirely. What we've got down here is honest, catchable fluke, not giants, and I'd rather tell you that straight than have you out there expecting slobs on every drift.

The inlet itself has been the better bet for size on stripers and blues both. Ocean-side water temps running around 71 degrees off the upwelling have been pulling bait right up against the rocks at Barnegat Light, and the bluefish have been all over it — peanut bunker getting pushed into the wash and blues busting on top in the last hour of daylight most evenings this week. Diamond jigs, half-ounce to one-ounce, worked with a fast retrieve through the froth, or bunker chunks fished on the bottom if you'd rather sit and wait — both have worked. Stripers have been mixed in with that bluefish activity but scattered, mostly schoolies in the 18 to 24 inch range holding just outside the wash where the current slows. As those spring tides build this weekend I expect that evening bite to sharpen up — bigger water movement means more bait pushed past the rocks right as the light goes down, and that's when the better fish show. If I had one evening to fish this week, I'd be on the North Jetty an hour before sunset on Saturday's high, working a white bucktail with a tail teaser tight to the rocks.

Now the honest part. Weakfish have been a disappointment, and I want to say that plainly rather than dress it up. The sedge banks south of Good Luck Point and around Tices Shoal gave us a genuinely good month back in May — decent weakfish on soft plastics and bucktails worked slow along the grass edges on the last two hours of the incoming. That bite has faded hard since, and the warm water we've got now hasn't brought it back the way you might expect. I've heard the theory that warm bay water alone should trigger a summer weakfish push, and what I've seen this year says that's not enough by itself — you need the bait stacked up too, and right now the peanut bunker and spearing are thin on those flats. So if you're chasing weakfish specifically, I'd temper expectations and maybe focus your effort elsewhere until we see bait numbers build.

Blowfish have been steady and reliable, which is more than I can say for most things right now — Tices Shoal and the bulkheads along Double Creek Channel have both been giving up decent numbers on clam belly fished on small hooks under a sliding sinker, best around the high tide when the current slacks enough to fish tight to structure. And out on the ocean side, kingfish have been showing in the surf troughs at Island Beach State Park, small but consistent, on bloodworm chunks fished on a high-low rig in the wash during the incoming tide — good action for anyone who wants a bucket of fish for the pan without chasing anything fancy.

Looking ahead, the building spring tide is the story. If the wind stays as mild as it's been, I'd fish the evening high at the inlet this weekend for stripers and blues, and keep working Double Creek Channel on the outgoing for fluke through the week. Watch the bait — if peanut bunker starts stacking up on the flats again, that's when I'd go looking for weakfish one more time before summer really settles in.