New moon springs push bay fluke into Jones Inlet as bass wait on the sunset flood

New moon hit and the tides have been building all week — bigger swings, more water moving through the inlet on every stage, which is exactly what you want to see heading into a July weekend. The Great South Bay has been sitting up around 78, 79 degrees on the flats, and that kind of heat does two things: it pushes bait and gamefish out of the shallow bay water and it turns the inlet and the ocean side into the address. We've been watching that shift happen in real time — fluke that were scattered all over South Oyster Bay two weeks ago are now stacking up tight to the channel edges at Jones Inlet and out along the ocean side where upwelled water is running closer to 71 degrees. That's a 7-8 degree difference and fish don't ignore that.

This weekend is the one to circle. The new moon springs are converging with a PM flood that times up right at sunset — first evening window like this since the full moon back in June. That's not a small thing. When the high stand of tide lines up with last light, bass that have been sluggish and scattered through the heat of the day get a reason to move, and they move on the bunker schools that have been sitting in the wash off Jones Beach and around Short Beach. Friday through Monday, July 11-13, is the peak alignment. After that the tides start easing off the springs and the window closes back down until the next cycle.

Fluke fishing has actually been the more dependable story the last week, and it's not close. The inlet itself — the channel between the Jones Beach jetty and the Point Lookout side — has been holding fish on the outgoing, with the best drifts starting right at the top of the tide and running through the first three hours down. White and chartreuse Gulp Swimming Mullets, four and five inch, on three-quarter ounce bucktails, dragged slow along the bottom in eighteen to twenty-eight feet where the channel dips. A few boats working the Sloop Channel stretch and out toward the West End have put keeper-class fluke in the boat, nothing giant, mostly 18-22 inches with the occasional fish pushing four pounds mixed in. It's not a banner year yet but it's a real bite — you work the tide change right and you'll get bit. Bunker spearing tipped on the hook is still outfishing straight Gulp on the slower days, so don't be shy about carrying both.

Striped bass are the trickier read right now. Daytime has been quiet — warm surface water and bright sun has them sitting deep or tucked under the bunker schools that are working the wash from Short Beach out past the Wantagh Bridge approach. That's actually the tell: if you see those bunker balls nervous and flipping on the surface at dawn or in that last hour before dark, there's almost always bass or blues stacked underneath them. Diamond jigs worked through the school, or a bunker snagged and drifted back on a stinger rig, has been the move for the guys getting on them. At the inlet rocks themselves, the jetty crowd has done best fishing bunker chunks on fishfinder rigs on the outgoing, letting the scent wash out into the deeper water off the tip. Once the sun's down, eels fished slow along the rock edge on that new incoming tide have accounted for a few better fish, high 20s to low 30-inch class, nothing to write home about size-wise but steady enough to make the trip worthwhile if you're willing to fish it right through the tide change.

Weakfish are the fish everybody keeps asking me about, and I want to be straight with you — the warm water alone isn't doing it. We've had South Oyster Bay sitting above 70 degrees for over two weeks now and the weakfish reports are still thin. A few scattered fish have come out of the deeper holes off Freeport on bucktails tipped with sandworms, fished slow near bottom on the last of the outgoing, but it's one-here-one-there fishing, not a pattern you can count on yet. The water temp is necessary for these fish to show, it's just not sufficient by itself — something else has to click, whether that's bait density or just more fish pushing in from the ocean side. I'm still checking the deep bends in the bay every week because when it turns on with weakfish it can turn fast, but right now I wouldn't plan a trip around them.

Porgies have been a nice consistent side dish all month. Bottom rigs with bloodworm or clam, fished the deeper holes inside the inlet and around the bridge pilings at Wantagh, are producing a steady pick of 10-13 inch fish with enough bigger ones mixed in to keep it interesting. Good action for anyone bringing kids along while the adults work bucktails for fluke on the same drift.

Looking at this week, my plan is simple: fluke in the mornings on the inlet outgoing while the water's still got some coolness to it, then I'm parked on the beach at Short Beach or the Jones jetty for that Friday-through-Monday sunset flood window, watching for bunker getting nervous. If the bass show under those schools during that tide-and-light alignment, it could be the best few evenings we've had since spring. If they don't, the fluke bite is real enough to make the trip worth it on its own.