New moon springs push Peconic fluke into the guts, porgies stack thick around Shelter Island

Last week the Peconic did what it does in July — it got warm, fast, and quiet on the flats in the middle of the day. We're coming off a stretch of light southwest wind and a waning moon that kept the tides modest, and the bay soaked up sun the whole time. Shallow water in Noyack and upper Peconic has been running warm enough that the fluke that were spread out on the flats in June have pulled off into the channels and current-scrubbed guts where there's cooler water moving and more oxygen in it. That's the single biggest thing driving the bite right now, and it's not subtle — if you're still working the same skinny-water flats you fished in May, you're behind the fish.

This week changes the math. We're building into a new moon — peak alignment is going to land right around the 11th through the 13th — and that means bigger tidal swings than we've had in two weeks. More water moving through Plum Gut, through the Shelter Island ferry channels, through the cut at Jessups Neck. Bigger current means the bait gets pushed harder, which means predators get more aggressive about showing up where that current dumps into deeper water. I like this setup a lot for both the fluke, which want that moving water, and for the bass, which have been sluggish on the slow tides and should wake up on the stronger push. Wind looks manageable through the weekend, mostly light and out of the south, so there shouldn't be much reason to stay off the water unless a pop-up thunderstorm rolls through, which is about all July throws at us out here.

Fluke fishing has been honest, not spectacular. The bay stock is thin and scattered right now with that warm, still water in the upper reaches, but the channel and inlet fish are a different story. Plum Gut on the last two hours of the outgoing has been the most consistent spot I've fished or heard good word on — 30 to 45 feet, bucktails in white or chartreuse tipped with a strip of squid or a 4-inch Gulp Swimming Mullet, dragged slow along bottom as you drift through the rip. Keepers are mixing in with a lot of short fish, so expect to cull, but there are solid 4 and 5 pound doormats coming out of there on the stronger tide stages. The North Ferry channel between Shelter Island and Greenport has also been holding fish on the drop of the tide — same rig, just fish it a little lighter since the current's not as brutal as the Gut. Orient Point's outer edge, where the reef drops into deeper water, is worth a look too as this week's bigger tides get moving; that's classic fluke water when there's current to work with.

Porgies are the bright spot and honestly the easy button right now. Shelter Island's been with scup around Cedar Island, the Route 114 bridge rips, and out toward Coecles Harbor — small hooks, size 6 or 8, sandworm or clam strips on a simple high-low rig, and you don't need much weight in most of these spots since the current is manageable. Bring the kids, bring a light rod, and expect a bent stick for as long as your bait holds out. Some of the fish coming off the deeper structure near Jessups Neck have been pushing a pound and a half, which is a nice porgy for these waters. This bite doesn't seem to care much about tide stage — I've done well on both stages of the tide there, though the last two hours of the incoming has been slightly better for size.

Striped bass have been a grind through the slow-tide stretch, but I think that changes with this week's building current. Plum Gut at first light and again at dusk is where I'd put my money, working diamond jigs or bucktails through the rip on the strong outgoing — the bigger tidal push this week should concentrate bait and get the bass stacking up in the current seams the way they do best. Orient Point has also been giving up fish to guys soaking bunker chunks on the bottom during the last of the incoming, fishing tight to the drop where the current slows just enough for a bass to sit and wait. Nothing giant reported — schoolies to low-20-inch fish mostly — but a few better bass in the high 20s have come out of the Gut on eels after dark, which is still the move if you want a shot at a bigger fish and don't mind losing some sleep.

Bluefish have shown up in pockets in Gardiners Bay, chopping bunker on the surface some mornings off Orient and out past Cedar Beach — when you find that, a wire leader and a Hopkins jig or a bunker spoon will get bit fast. It's not consistent, more of a here-today-gone-tomorrow situation, so keep your eyes open for diving birds and don't waste time on water that isn't showing life.

Weakfish, I'll be straight with you, have been a no-show. I haven't heard a credible report out of the Peconic system this year worth printing, and warm water alone clearly isn't enough to bring them back — we've talked about that pattern for a couple seasons now. If you're targeting them specifically, I'd shift that effort to porgies or fluke instead.

Looking ahead, I'd fish Plum Gut hard on the building tides this weekend — both the fluke bite and the bass bite should get better as more water starts moving with the new moon. If the current doesn't cooperate or the Gut gets crowded, Shelter Island's porgy grounds are the fallback that rarely lets you down this time of year.