New moon springs load the outgoing tide as fluke bail out of a hot bay

Last week the bay cooked. Shinnecock Bay pushed well into the upper 70s on the flats and in the back creeks, and that kind of heat does one thing every July — it moves the fluke out. I watched it happen in real time off Tiana and around the flats north of the canal: the bite that was steady on the drift two weeks ago just stopped, and the boats that adjusted found them stacked up in the channels and the deeper cuts near the inlet instead. Wind's been mild out of the southwest most days, nothing that tore up the water, but it was enough to keep the shallow bay warm and sluggish through the week. Now we're rolling into a new moon — peak alignment around the 11th through the 13th — which means spring tides building fast. Bigger swings, more water moving, stronger current through the inlet on the outgoing. That's the kind of tide that flushes bait hard out of the bay and gives the bass something to eat right at the mouth.

Here's the why: warm, slack back-bay water holds less oxygen and less comfort for fluke this time of year, so they slide toward the moving, cooler water — the inlet channel, the ocean side, anywhere there's exchange. Reports off the ocean beaches have that upwelled water sitting around 71 degrees, noticeably cleaner and cooler than the bay, and that's exactly the kind of edge fluke and bait both like. Add spring tides on a new moon and you get stronger current lanes concentrating everything right where the inlet dumps out. That's where I've been putting my time, and it's where I'd send you this week too.

Night bite at the inlet has been the most consistent thing on my log. I'm working the outgoing starting about an hour before peak flow, working both jetties but favoring the north side jetty rocks where the current sets up a clean seam against the rip. Live eels have been the ticket after dark — 8 to 10 inch eels on a fish-finder rig, freelined into the seam, letting them swim naturally with the current instead of dragging them. Bunker chunks fished on the bottom in the deeper hole just inside the inlet mouth have also produced, especially on the last two hours of the drain when the current really starts ripping. Sizes have been mixed — plenty of schoolies in the 22 to 26 inch range, but I've had three fish over 30 inches in the last ten days, all on eels, all in the dead of night on a strong outgoing. Bluefish have been mixed in too, chopping up bunker chunks and occasionally hitting the eels, which tells me there's bait stacked in that inlet current right now.

Fluke have shifted, like I said, but that doesn't mean they're gone — they're just concentrated. The channel edges just inside the inlet, in 12 to 18 feet, have been holding fish on the drift. Chartreuse bucktails, half-ounce to three-quarter depending on the current, tipped with a 4-inch white Gulp Swimming Mullet, dragged slow along the bottom on the last of the incoming or the start of the outgoing when the current isn't ripping too hard to hold bottom. A few boats working the ocean side structure just outside the inlet in that cooler 71-degree water have found better average size — nothing giant, but solid keepers in the 19 to 21 inch range mixed with plenty of shorts you'll have to sort through.

Weakfish at Ponquogue Bridge have been quiet, and I'll be straight about it — the water's been warm enough on paper, but that doesn't seem to matter much anymore. I've made four trips to the bridge pilings on the last hour of dusk into full dark, working diamond jigs tipped with squid strips and soft plastic swimbaits tight to the structure, and connected on exactly one fish, a fat 4-pounder that came off a rising tide right at the base of the pilings. If you're going to chase them, fish the shadow line under the bridge lights on the outgoing, right at the change of tide, and don't expect volume. Porgies have been more reliable there and around the canal mouth — small hooks, sandworms or clam on a standard porgy rig, fished right on bottom near the rocks. Steady action, nothing spectacular, good for a bucket of dinner fish.

One more thing worth watching this week — the pelagic window's closing but it's not shut yet. First Spanish mackerel and bonito reports have come out of the eastern ocean-side inlets on clean incoming water, and Shinnecock qualifies. If you've got small metal jigs or Deadly Dick style lures and want to burn an hour on the outside of the inlet during a clean incoming tide, it's worth a look before that window closes for the season.

Looking ahead: new moon springs peak the 11th through the 13th, which means the biggest tidal exchange we've seen since the June full moon. I'll be fishing the inlet hard after dark on the outgoing those nights — that's when the current lane sets up tightest and the bass push in tightest behind the bait getting flushed out. If the wind stays out of the southwest and light like it has been, I don't see a reason that pattern breaks. The canal will be worth a look too on the bigger tides — more exchange between the bay and the Peconic side usually means more bait moving through, and where there's bait moving, there's fish following it.