The stock market

[URL unfurl="true"]https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-04-01/tesla-tsla-deliveries-could-decline-for-the-first-time-in-years?srnd=markets-vp[/URL]

[URL unfurl="true"]https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stock-market-today-dow-sinks-more-than-400-points-yields-rise-to-2024-highs-185418880.html[/URL]

[URL unfurl="true"]https://finance.yahoo.com/news/surging-bond-yields-dont-change-the-narrative-for-stocks-100037430.html[/URL]

[URL unfurl="true"]https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stock-market-today-us-futures-drift-lower-as-faith-in-rate-cuts-fades-105325704.html[/URL]

Keep an eye on this one.

[URL unfurl="true"]https://finance.yahoo.com/news/tsmc-evacuates-production-lines-major-011155430.html[/URL]

Got Gold?? up 43% since October 2023

Big indicator here. While markets have done great, the commodity and energy/industrial complex is ripping higher too.

I did not get on the gold wagon. But have done quite well in the tech and energy sectors.

Chime in - interest rate decrease for June?

Took one out of the box to check up on Lady Liberty

I did not get on the gold wagon. But have done quite well in the tech and energy sectors.

Chime in - interest rate decrease for June?

Not so sure, but it is an election year and Powel is getting the pressure.

I guess it really depends on if CPI comes in hot next week for March, plus we have three months of CPI, ISM, etc...until the June meeting.

Oil up WTI at $85, plus supply chain in potential problems in Delaware with the port and now chips in Taiwan with the earthquake,

I think inflation is sticky and the actual inflation is way higher that the official #'s. .

The conundrum of-course is the huge interest payments on the national debt every three months at these levels if rates are kept up here. The $$ are truly insane.

Not so sure, but it is an election year and Powel is getting the pressure.

I guess it really depends on if CPI comes in hot next week for March, plus we have three months of CPI, ISM, etc...until the June meeting.

Oil up WTI at $85, plus supply chain in potential problems in Delaware with the port and now chips in Taiwan with the earthquake,

I think inflation is sticky and the actual inflation is way higher that the official #'s. .

The conundrum of-course is the huge interest payments on the national debt every three months at these levels if rates are kept up here. The $$ are truly insane.

I think inflation is sticky and the actual inflation is way higher that the official #'s. .

That is why I think they cannot change rates in June. Still too much money on the street. Plus issues in Delaware and more so in Taiwan as you pointed out.

A friend of mine tells me that private equity in certain industries is starting to percolate again. His industry died for a bit. The models he reviewed were showing the interest payments reducing EBITDA to levels that some folks have been afraid to pull the trigger. Although sitting on cash, even at 5% is making folks impatient.

Credit card debt is still growing, meaning folks still spending. 401k drawdowns are going higher and higher each month.

Wait until the tax and in some cases for those under 59 1/2 have to pay the tax and 10% penalty for early withdrawals kick them in the ass in 2025.

Not a pretty picture.

So spending is still at a torrid pace. IF that stops, or hits the wall in the next two months, then I could see a June decrease on rates.

I think inflation is sticky and the actual inflation is way higher that the official #'s. .

That is why I think they cannot change rates in June. Still too much money on the street. Plus issues in Delaware and more so in Taiwan as you pointed out.

A friend of mine tells me that private equity in certain industries is starting to percolate again. His industry died for a bit. The models he reviewed were showing the interest payments reducing EBITDA to levels that some folks have been afraid to pull the trigger. Although sitting on cash, even at 5% is making folks impatient.

Credit card debt is still growing, meaning folks still spending. 401k drawdowns are going higher and higher each month.

Wait until the tax and in some cases for those under 59 1/2 have to pay the tax and 10% penalty for early withdrawals kick them in the ass in 2025.

Not a pretty picture.

So spending is still at a torrid pace. IF that stops, or hits the wall in the next two months, then I could see a June decrease on rates.

Yes, that's the shoe to drop on the other side: e.g. the consumer/employment. Consumer Discretionary warnings (ULTA, LuLu, PVH etc...) plus the CRE issue and the BTFD put program for regional banks just expired last month.

interesting times

[URL unfurl="true"]https://finance.yahoo.com/news/why-the-fed-is-wading-into-uncharted-waters-morning-brief-100027194.html[/URL]

[URL unfurl="true"]https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stock-market-today-dow-set-for-rebound-as-rate-cut-nerves-settle-111712062.html[/URL]

[URL unfurl="true"]https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/powell-says-fed-needs-more-inflation-evidence-before-cutting-interest-rates[/URL]

[URL unfurl="true"]https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stock-market-today-stocks-shed-gains-ahead-of-march-jobs-report-183046892.html[/URL]

[URL unfurl="true"]https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/what-expect-march-jobs-report[/URL]

See what happens when Biden gets involved with foreign relations and screws it up?

Israel - his phone call
Iran
Oil driving higher

Market gets the jitters.

Is it time to take substantial gains? If this Israel / Iran / US thing implodes markets will be in chaos.

Is it time to take substantial gains? If this Israel / Iran / US thing implodes markets will be in chaos.

You can make money cashing out too early, but lose a ton holding on too long...

You can make money cashing out too early, but lose a ton holding on too long...

Agree, but difficult when politics is the issue.