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The COVID-19 Science and Medicine Question Thread

70,573 views·762 replies·by Roccus7·First Post·Latest
Roccus7
Roccus7MODnoreaster.com2020#41

Nice article today in NYTimes regarding the spread of COVID-19 in the US. As scientist and epidemiologist delved into it further, the work of contact tracing and viral nucleic acid sequencing tells and interesting tale.

Here's a snippet below, entire article attached:

SEATTLE — As the coronavirus outbreak consumed the city of Wuhan in China, new cases of the virus began to spread out like sparks flung from a fire.

Some landed thousands of miles away. By the middle of January, one had popped up in Chicago, another one near Phoenix. Two others came down in the Los Angeles area. Thanks to a little luck and a lot of containment, those flashes of the virus appear to have been snuffed out before they had a chance to take hold.

But on Jan. 15, at the international airport south of Seattle, a 35-year-old man returned from a visit to his family in the Wuhan region. He grabbed his luggage and booked a ride-share to his home north of the city.

The next day, as he went back to his tech job east of Seattle, he felt the first signs of a cough — not a bad one, not enough to send him home. He attended a group lunch with colleagues that week at a seafood restaurant near his office. As his symptoms got worse, he went grocery shopping near his home.

attachment-18568

Shall I go to heaven or a-fishing? - H. D. Thoreau
Veni. Vidi. Cepi. - with apologies to Gaius Julius Caesar
AdmiralOriginal Crew21,717 postsSince 2018
pequa1
pequa1MODnoreaster.com2020#42

People are so thoughtless. At least yours are tossing them in the street. I've seen pictures of people leaving them in a shopping cart!!

BTW, I expect photos when you complete your model of that veteran from the Battle of Jutland!!

I prefer the Battle of Cape Matapan, basically making the navy of Italy an afterthought. (Mine is the 1942 version.) Delete this to keep the thread on course.

attachment-18569

Every day is Saturday.
CommodoreOriginal Crew7,034 postsSince 2018
Roccus7
Roccus7MODnoreaster.com2020#43

Very disconcerting news...

[SIZE=6]The timeline of the virus’s arrival in the U.S. shifts with the revelation of an early death in California.[/SIZE]

California’s quest to retrace the early steps of the coronavirus entered a new phase Wednesday after officials linked the death of a 57-year-old woman in early February to the virus.

The woman’s case, weeks before any other known death, had piqued the interest of a local coroner in Santa Clara County. After further examination, local officials sent tissue samples to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention for testing in mid-March, but the results, confirming a coronavirus diagnosis, did not come back until Tuesday.

Friends and family said the woman had developed symptoms on Feb. 2 and died four days later, on Feb. 6, while working from home. The woman worked at a Silicon Valley semiconductor manufacturing company with offices worldwide, including in Wuhan, China, where the outbreak began.

The case suggests that the virus was in California as early as January, even though officials, hampered by limited testing capacity, did not identify cases of community spread until late February.

Gov. Gavin Newsom of California said Wednesday that there could be “subsequent announcements” as investigations across California further examine the early origins of the virus. He said investigators were looking at coroner and autopsy reports going back to December in some counties.

Another previously unconnected death in Santa Clara County, on Feb. 17, has also now been linked to the coronavirus.

The revelation that a coronavirus death took place in the United States in early February shifts the understanding of its arrival and changes the picture of what the nation was contending with by the time government officials began taking action.

The first Covid-19 death in the United States had previously been believed to be on Feb. 26 in Seattle, one of the worst-hit cities in the country.

Dr. Sara Cody, the chief health officer of Santa Clara County, south of San Francisco, said the newly diagnosed cases underlined that the virus was spreading undetected for weeks in the country in January and February.

Dr. Cody led the effort to issue the nation’s first stay-at-home orders on March 16. But she said she would have issued the orders even earlier had she known about the February deaths.

“I think if we had had widespread testing earlier and if we had been able to document the level of transmission in the county, if we had understood then that people were already dying, we probably would have acted earlier than we did,” Dr. Cody said.

Shall I go to heaven or a-fishing? - H. D. Thoreau
Veni. Vidi. Cepi. - with apologies to Gaius Julius Caesar
AdmiralOriginal Crew21,717 postsSince 2018
Roccus7
Roccus7MODnoreaster.com2020#44

Hopefully over the hump in Maine, ironically, the graph is starting to actually look like the State of Maine...

Shall I go to heaven or a-fishing? - H. D. Thoreau
Veni. Vidi. Cepi. - with apologies to Gaius Julius Caesar
AdmiralOriginal Crew21,717 postsSince 2018
Roccus7
Roccus7MODnoreaster.com2020#45

I guess this was predictable...

Rural counties with a high number of seasonal homes across the United States have seen more cases of COVID-19 on average than those with less seasonal housing, according to an analysis by a researcher at the Carsey School of Public Policy in New Hampshire.
******
The research suggests that rural scenery has drawn visitors seeking to escape densely populated metropolitan areas, who likely brought the virus with them.

Shall I go to heaven or a-fishing? - H. D. Thoreau
Veni. Vidi. Cepi. - with apologies to Gaius Julius Caesar
AdmiralOriginal Crew21,717 postsSince 2018
jpd
jpdMODnoreaster.com2020#46

I guess this was predictable...

***Rural counties with a high number of seasonal homes across the United States have seen more cases of COVID-19 on average than those with less seasonal housing, according to an analysis by a researcher at the Carsey School of Public Policy in New Hampshire.

The research suggests that rural scenery has drawn visitors seeking to escape densely populated metropolitan areas, who likely brought the virus with them.***

Or the "Rural counties with a high number of seasonal homes" happen to be the most congested counties in their respective regions without the influx of summer visitors. You can do a lot of interesting things with data.

A lawyer with his briefcase can steal more than a hundred men with guns- Mario Puzo
CommodoreOriginal Crew9,876 postsSince 2018
Roccus7
Roccus7MODnoreaster.com2020#47

Or the "Rural counties with a high number of seasonal homes" happen to be the most congested counties in their respective regions without the influx of summer visitors. You can do a lot of interesting things with data.

Will never debate your, You can do a lot of interesting things with data observation, He who has the best statistician always wins is one of my mantras. In this case the US Census definition of "Rural" remains as all territory, persons, and housing units not defined as urban. As you can imagine, this really fogs WTH "Suburban" is.

Therefore if you were to consider two neighboring "Rural" counties with one more popular with seasonal visitors than the other, an influx of only a few infected "People From Away" would quickly make that county's infection count higher than the neighboring by virtue of the "importation" of the disease...

Shall I go to heaven or a-fishing? - H. D. Thoreau
Veni. Vidi. Cepi. - with apologies to Gaius Julius Caesar
AdmiralOriginal Crew21,717 postsSince 2018
cany
canyCOMMUNITYnoreaster.com2020#48

If someone lived with someone who had it and died from it The person gets tested a week later and comes up negative is that it they done have it? or can it just not be showing yet?

General cany, Watching always Watching
CornField
AdmiralOriginal Crew41,109 postsSince 2018
BennyV
BennyVFREE2020#49

If someone lived with someone who had it and died from it The person gets tested a week later and comes up negative is that it they done have it? or can it just not be showing yet?

I thought incubation period was 14 days.

CommodoreOriginal Crew5,665 postsSince 2018
jpd
jpdMODnoreaster.com2020#50

Therefore if you were to consider two neighboring "Rural" counties with one more popular with seasonal visitors than the other, an influx of only a few infected "People From Away" would quickly make that county's infection count higher than the neighboring by virtue of the "importation" of the disease...

The infection count is based on the availability of testing, so there is another problem if one neighboring county is a little more "well off" than its immediate neighbor - irregardless of summer visitors.

The death count to me seems to be the most consistent data barometer, now NYC is counting people that die with previous corona-like symptoms as having passed away from this pandemic. I'd bet they are picking up some common flu deaths by doing that.

It's a mess.

A lawyer with his briefcase can steal more than a hundred men with guns- Mario Puzo
CommodoreOriginal Crew9,876 postsSince 2018
Roccus7
Roccus7MODnoreaster.com2020#51

The infection count is based on the availability of testing...
...It's a mess.

Yes, inconsistent testing administration and requirements really skew the data.

For example, in Maine, 20% of the infected folks are Healthcare Workers. Is that really the case? HELL NO, but they are tested symptomatic or not. And when one person in a Long-Term Living facility gets sick and is tested, the entire facility, including staff and contractors is tested so, as if no one could figure that out, there's an immediate hot pocket with multiple cases...

Shall I go to heaven or a-fishing? - H. D. Thoreau
Veni. Vidi. Cepi. - with apologies to Gaius Julius Caesar
AdmiralOriginal Crew21,717 postsSince 2018
jpd
jpdMODnoreaster.com2020#52

Yes, inconsistent testing administration and requirements really skew the data.

And then there is this...

[URL unfurl="true"]https://1010wins.radio.com/articles/4-tigers-3-lions-test-positive-for-coronavirus-at-bronx-zoo[/URL]

A lawyer with his briefcase can steal more than a hundred men with guns- Mario Puzo
CommodoreOriginal Crew9,876 postsSince 2018
cany
canyCOMMUNITYnoreaster.com2020#53

I thought incubation period was 14 days.

Me too so I guess its possible to test negative then positive a few days later?

General cany, Watching always Watching
CornField
AdmiralOriginal Crew41,109 postsSince 2018
Roccus7
Roccus7MODnoreaster.com2020#54

Me too so I guess its possible to test negative then positive a few days later?

Absolutely!! Even the very sensitive diagnostic tests (NAT) have a time period of a few days between infection and detectable levels of virus. Additionally, there is somewhat of an "art" to getting good swab samples, so if you weren't swabbed effectively, it could be negative and finally some swabs destined for that 5 min test, have been put in an improper sample solution which reduces sensitivity.

Shall I go to heaven or a-fishing? - H. D. Thoreau
Veni. Vidi. Cepi. - with apologies to Gaius Julius Caesar
AdmiralOriginal Crew21,717 postsSince 2018
cany
canyCOMMUNITYnoreaster.com2020#55

Absolutely!! Even the very sensitive diagnostic tests (NAT) have a time period of a few days between infection and detectable levels of virus. Additionally, there is somewhat of an "art" to getting good swab samples, so if you weren't swabbed effectively, it could be negative and finally some swabs destined for that 5 min test, have been put in an improper sample solution which reduces sensitivity.

Great

General cany, Watching always Watching
CornField
AdmiralOriginal Crew41,109 postsSince 2018
pequa1
pequa1MODnoreaster.com2020#56

I have already decided if I use my bay boat this year it will just be me or me and the better half. Hoping my fishing buddy feels the same way with his boat. Don't want to lose a friend over something as unnecessary as having to have a non-household buddy to go fishing with.

Every day is Saturday.
CommodoreOriginal Crew7,034 postsSince 2018
jpd
jpdMODnoreaster.com2020#57

Not at all surprising

[URL unfurl="true"]https://1010wins.radio.com/articles/coronavirus-in-ny-state-438-deaths-in-24-hours[/URL]

A lawyer with his briefcase can steal more than a hundred men with guns- Mario Puzo
CommodoreOriginal Crew9,876 postsSince 2018
Roccus7
Roccus7MODnoreaster.com2020#58

Not at all surprising

[URL unfurl="true"]https://1010wins.radio.com/articles/coronavirus-in-ny-state-438-deaths-in-24-hours[/URL]

If this was a good, state-wide random sampling, I'd bet my 401(k) that the number is a least double in NYC and the immediately surrounding suburbs like Rockland.

Shall I go to heaven or a-fishing? - H. D. Thoreau
Veni. Vidi. Cepi. - with apologies to Gaius Julius Caesar
AdmiralOriginal Crew21,717 postsSince 2018
Roccus7
Roccus7MODnoreaster.com2020#59

Maine still looking like the worst is over. Tragically we lost 5 aged Veterans yesterday at a Veterans home, aged 50 - 90 years. Condolences to their families and friends, and thank you for your service!!

Shall I go to heaven or a-fishing? - H. D. Thoreau
Veni. Vidi. Cepi. - with apologies to Gaius Julius Caesar
AdmiralOriginal Crew21,717 postsSince 2018
Roccus7
Roccus7MODnoreaster.com2020#60

PLEASE WALK AWAY FROM THE LIGHT and other folks for that matter!!!!

A certain, MD in His Own Mind, started to ramble about the possibility of shooting UV light into COVID-19 the body of infected patients as a treatment. I'll stifle all urges to rant and scream about this with a basic biological fact. Yes, UV light kills bacteria and viruses, and ALL LIFE. The mechanism for this is simple, UV light degrades nucleic acids, RNA & DNA, rendering it useless or causing mutations.

There was also a "thought" about using disinfectants to treat sick folks, WRONG!!! Once again, disinfectants kill LIFE. Don't forget that the first poison gas used in WWI was CHLORINE, which is one of the most effective disinfectants.

At this moment, there are no, well-documented and tested treatments SPECIFIC for COVID-19. There are drugs and treatments being looked at, and they have had some excellent preliminary results in CERTAIN, specific clinical presentations. As far as treatments that will prevent the spread, the best we got is SOCIAL DISTANCING, wearing FACIAL MASKS when out, and ABSOLUTE HYGIENE, your hands should be raw from washing by now...

Shall I go to heaven or a-fishing? - H. D. Thoreau
Veni. Vidi. Cepi. - with apologies to Gaius Julius Caesar
AdmiralOriginal Crew21,717 postsSince 2018

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