Coronavirus

[New York (brown dots) has been a catastrophe. On March 20, 2020, a full lockdown was implemented. Nonessential businesses were ordered to close. Workers in nonessential businesses were ordered to work only from home. Pharmacies, grocery stores, liquor stores, and wine stores were deemed to be essential and allowed to remain open. Restaurants and bars could only deliver to homes. In addition to the lockdown, nursing homes were ordered on March 25, 2020, to accept patients positive for the covid-19 virus in transfer from hospitals. … By April 7, 2020, within three weeks of the nursing home order, a daily mortality of over fifty deaths per day per million population had been reached. This daily mortality rate was almost five times the peak rate observed in Sweden, where no lockdown was implemented.]('https://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2020/08/more-evidence-that-shutdowns-are-useless.php')
*
[The New York data clearly show that interactions among young and healthy people have a much different risk than interactions between the young and elderly and interactions among the elderly. By facilitating the transmission of the virus from hospitals to nursing homes, the rate of spread within the elderly population was maximized, and any possible benefit from lockdown of the young and healthy population was rendered moot. … The decline of deaths from the peak levels in New York, with its harsh lockdown, has followed roughly the same time course as what has been observed in Sweden without any lockdown. It is unclear whether the lockdown interfered with herd immunity or not. This will not be known until after the economy and schools are completely reopened for at least a month. ]('https://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2020/08/more-evidence-that-shutdowns-are-useless.php')

[COLOR=rgb(41, 105, 176)] Sweden (blue dots) has served as a control group to compare policies intended to decrease deaths from covid-19. Sweden has been unfairly criticized for its policy despite having an outcome more favorable than places with authoritarian lockdown policies. Sweden did not close its schools. Other than stopping gatherings of more than fifty people, the Swedish government left decisions of closing businesses, using masks, and social distancing to the Swedish people. [/COLOR]
*
[The data suggest that lockdowns have not prevented any deaths from covid-19. At best, lockdowns have deferred death for a short time, but they cannot possibly be continued for the long term. It seems likely that one will not have to even compare economic deprivation with loss of life, as the final death toll following authoritarian lockdowns will most likely exceed the deaths from letting people choose how to manage their own risk. After taking the unprecedented economic depression into account, history will likely judge these lockdowns to be the greatest policy error of this generation. ]('https://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2020/08/more-evidence-that-shutdowns-are-useless.php')

[New York (brown dots) has been a catastrophe. On March 20, 2020, a full lockdown was implemented. Nonessential businesses were ordered to close. Workers in nonessential businesses were ordered to work only from home. Pharmacies, grocery stores, liquor stores, and wine stores were deemed to be essential and allowed to remain open. Restaurants and bars could only deliver to homes. In addition to the lockdown, nursing homes were ordered on March 25, 2020, to accept patients positive for the covid-19 virus in transfer from hospitals. … By April 7, 2020, within three weeks of the nursing home order, a daily mortality of over fifty deaths per day per million population had been reached. This daily mortality rate was almost five times the peak rate observed in Sweden, where no lockdown was implemented.]('https://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2020/08/more-evidence-that-shutdowns-are-useless.php')

*[The New York data clearly show that interactions among young and healthy people have a much different risk than interactions between the young and elderly and interactions among the elderly. By facilitating the transmission of the virus from hospitals to nursing homes, the rate of spread within the elderly population was maximized, and any possible benefit from lockdown of the young and healthy population was rendered moot. … The decline of deaths from the peak levels in New York, with its harsh lockdown, has followed roughly the same time course as what has been observed in Sweden without any lockdown. It is unclear whether the lockdown interfered with herd immunity or not. This will not be known until after the economy and schools are completely reopened for at least a month.]('https://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2020/08/more-evidence-that-shutdowns-are-useless.php')

[COLOR=rgb(41, 105, 176)] Sweden (blue dots) has served as a control group to compare policies intended to decrease deaths from covid-19. Sweden has been unfairly criticized for its policy despite having an outcome more favorable than places with authoritarian lockdown policies. Sweden did not close its schools. Other than stopping gatherings of more than fifty people, the Swedish government left decisions of closing businesses, using masks, and social distancing to the Swedish people. [/COLOR]*

[The data suggest that lockdowns have not prevented any deaths from covid-19. At best, lockdowns have deferred death for a short time, but they cannot possibly be continued for the long term. It seems likely that one will not have to even compare economic deprivation with loss of life, as the final death toll following authoritarian lockdowns will most likely exceed the deaths from letting people choose how to manage their own risk. After taking the unprecedented economic depression into account, history will likely judge these lockdowns to be the greatest policy error of this generation. ]('https://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2020/08/more-evidence-that-shutdowns-are-useless.php')

Would be nice to see graph normalized per capita and another graph showing when the strict measures for NY & IL were instituted, not sure if TX ever did anything, along with the predicted mortality w/o measures. That graph would be even more beneficial with ICU bed occupancy graphed on the other Y Axis.

Just want to get the total picture as to how bad of a chit storm NY avoided.

Drop you guard and masks, ignore social distancing and gathering orders and VOILA!! FYI, Millinocket is WAY ABOVE the "Toothline"...

[SIZE=7]After wedding in Millinocket, 28 test positive for COVID-19[/SIZE]
[pressherald.com/2020/08/17/maine-cdc-reports-29-cases-no-additional-deaths/]('https://www.pressherald.com/2020/08/17/maine-cdc-reports-29-cases-no-additional-deaths/')

By Eric RussellStaff WriterAugust 17, 2020

At least 28 people associated with a wedding reception held on Aug. 7 at the Big Moose Inn in Millinocket have tested positive for COVID-19.

Eighteen of those individuals attended the reception and another 10 had close contact with attendees, the Maine Center for Disease Control and Prevention said. All are Maine residents.

“Maine CDC continues to conduct case investigations and contact tracing for guests, staff, and people who potentially came in close contact with confirmed cases during and after the event,” the agency said in a news release Monday. “Anyone who attended an event at Big Moose Inn on August 7, 2020, and who has symptoms of COVID-19 should call their health care provider before seeking medical care.”

Approximately 65 people attended the event. It wasn’t clear if the reception was held indoors or outside, but current state restrictions call for gatherings to be limited to 50 people inside and 100 people outside. Face coverings are also supposed to be worn in public settings when physical distancing is not possible.

The Maine CDC said it is in contact with Big Moose Inn about the nature of the event and adherence to state requirements. Director Dr. Nirav Shah is expected to address the outbreak during a briefing Tuesday.

A message left with the manager of the Big Moose Inn was not returned Monday.

Robert Peterson, CEO of Millinocket Regional Hospital, said all the individuals who have tested positive so far are being treated as out-patients and have not required hospitalization. Peterson also said testing was ongoing at the hospital’s main campus and at a satellite clinic in East Millinocket and he expected the number of cases to increase. Everyone who attended the wedding who has not been tested is being asked to quarantine for 14 days.

“As our situation continues to evolve, so will our response,” he said. “We will be constantly monitoring the data and catering our response accordingly.”

Although summer in Maine is typically a busy time for weddings, the pandemic has forced many couples to postpone their events. Still, this is the second known outbreak associated with a wedding. [Six out-of-state guests who attended a private wedding in Castine in June]('https://www.pressherald.com/2020/07/02/maine-cdc-reports-34-new-coronavirus-cases-no-additional-deaths/') tested positive.

Curious as to why there were only 7 kids at soccer practice. As long as I can remember (and i started soccer at 5ys old) there are 11 that make up a team. Did the smart parents know better and keep their kids safe while the reckless parents put their kids at risk?

We actually had 9 on our team last fall which is a good # considering they play 5v5 at the intramural level. 7 showed 1 is out for the Fall and the other, switched to a different club altogether since the family moved.

Certain areas of Brooklyn turning into hot spots again due to a wedding. I give it a week before Monsey, Lakewood, and the surrounding areas start to see a spike in cases again.

That graph would be even more beneficial with ICU bed occupancy graphed on the other Y Axis.

At one point they were discussing if ventilator use was the right approach, since the mortality rate was sky high if you were put on one. I haven't heard that chatter in a while though.

At one point they were discussing if ventilator use was the right approach, since the mortality rate was sky high if you were put on one. I haven't heard that chatter in a while though.

IIRC it was more of case of if a patient is bad enough to get put on a ventilator, it was already too late. Additionally, now there is much additional data on things like Cytokine Storms, that MDs are cognizant of, allowing for early intervention treatments that may help a patient avoid slipping into the need for a ventilator.

Certain areas of Brooklyn turning into hot spots again due to a wedding. I give it a week before Monsey, Lakewood, and the surrounding areas start to see a spike in cases again.

Weddings seem to keep coming up!

[URL unfurl="true"]https://www.aol.com/los-angeles-cuts-utilities-home-231957282.html[/URL]

[URL unfurl="true"]https://www.yahoo.com/news/silent-spreaders-covid-19-kids-040107743.html[/URL]

*A new study adds to growing evidence that children are not immune to COVID-19 and may even play a larger role in community spread than previously thought.

Researchers at Massachusetts General Hospital and Mass General Hospital for Children found that among 192 children, 49 tested positive for the coronavirus and had significantly higher levels of virus in their airways than hospitalized adults in intensive care units, according to the study published Thursday in the Journal of Pediatrics.

“Kids are not immune from this infection, and their symptoms don’t correlate with exposure and infection,” said Dr. Alessio Fasano, senior author and director of the Mucosal Immunology and Biology Researcher Center at Massachusetts General Hospital.

Fasano said some children were brought to these settings after exhibiting symptoms, but others showed no symptoms and were brought in because they had been in contact with an infected person or lived in what was considered a high-risk area.
*

Weddings seem to keep coming up!

Well that demographic doesn’t care about city/state/federal laws. They only care about religious laws.

Interesting set of studies around T-Cells in this Business Insider Article. Looks like they reference the actual studies with links to them in the article.

[URL unfurl="true"]https://www.businessinsider.com/long-term-coronavirus-immunity-t-cells-2020-8[/URL]

Interesting set of studies around T-Cells in this Business Insider Article. Looks like they reference the actual studies with links to them in the article.

[URL unfurl="true"]https://www.businessinsider.com/long-term-coronavirus-immunity-t-cells-2020-8[/URL]

Actually got and read a pre-print of the Cell article yesterday. It's positive news for sure...

And it begins...

[SIZE=7]Person with COVID-19 may have infected others at Sturgis motorcycle rally[/SIZE]
[pressherald.com/2020/08/20/person-with-covid-19-may-have-infected-others-at-sturgis-motorcycle-rally/]('https://www.pressherald.com/2020/08/20/person-with-covid-19-may-have-infected-others-at-sturgis-motorcycle-rally/')

By Hannah KnowlesWashington PostAugust 20, 2020

As hundreds of thousands flocked to rural South Dakota for a motorcycle rally this month, sparking fears of a coronavirus super-spreader event, photos captured people crowding the streets without masks and packing local businesses – including a bar on Main Street, One-Eyed Jack’s Saloon.

Now state health officials say a person who visited One-Eyed Jack’s for about five hours has tested positive for the coronavirus, and could have transmitted the virus to others at the time.

Experts have singled out bars as places ripe for spreading COVID-19, and the exposures could be just the beginning of health consequences stemming from the annual Sturgis Motorcycle Rally, a 10-day extravaganza that draws people from around the country and is hugely important to the local economy.

With the coronavirus still rampant in many parts of the U.S. over the summer, most Sturgis residents polled by the city were against holding the rally from Aug. 7-16.
[[IMG alt="Virus_Outbreak_Sturgis_Rally_89673"]https://multifiles.pressherald.com/uploads/sites/10/2020/08/Virus_Outbreak_Sturgis_Rally_89673.jpg[/IMG]]('')
Bikers ride through downtown Sturgis, S.D., on Friday, Aug. 7. AP Photo/Stephen Groves

But Christina Steele, a spokeswoman for the city of Sturgis, said Thursday that she’s not concerned by the news about the virus case, echoing the attitudes many bikers expressed at the rally. Local officials had asked visitors to social-distance and wear masks but did not mandate those precautions at one of the biggest public gatherings of the pandemic.

“It could be one or two, could be more,” Steele said of coronavirus cases linked to the event. “But you know, it’s to be expected. Coronavirus is in South Dakota. It has been for months.”

“It was a good rally,” she told The Washington Post. “People had fun.”

Few details on the infected person at One-Eyed Jack’s were available in a brief news release, and beyond that, the rally’s contributions to coronavirus exposures are not yet clear. Coronavirus symptoms can take from two to 14 days to show up after exposure, experts say, meaning that infections stemming from the event could still be emerging.

State health officials did not say where the person is from or how many people may have exposed at the bar or at the broader rally. According to Sturgis, 462,182 vehicles were counted entering its limits over the course of the event, representing just a 7.5% dip from last year’s traffic.

The person visited the saloon from noon to 5:30 p.m. on Aug. 11 while they were able to transmit the virus to others, the release states. Others who were there at the time should “monitor for symptoms” for 14 days, it adds.

The South Dakota Department of Health did not immediately answer questions about the case and any contact-tracing around it, but said it will address the matter at a news conference.

The state’s coronavirus dashboard shows that new, known coronavirus cases in Meade County, which includes Sturgis, have risen since the rally began, though daily cases remain in the single digits. While new infections have remained fairly steady for South Dakota as a whole over the past two weeks, average new infections in Meade County have ticked up from about two per day to four per day.

On Monday, the latest day for which data is posted, the county reported a record of nine new cases.
City officials are not involved in investigating COVID-19 exposures at One-Eyed Jack’s, said Steele, the city spokeswoman. She said she is not aware of other infected people at the rally.

While some residents expressed concerns during the rally to the media, decrying the absence of masks, Steele told The Post the city has not gotten many comments from residents, beyond her own chats with a couple of people who said they felt attendees were “relaxed and happy to be there.”

Who would have seen that coming.
John

Now for some good news, directly contributed by fishermen!!

[SIZE=7]This Trawler’s Haul: Evidence That Antibodies Block the Coronavirus[/SIZE]

Three crew members aboard were spared when the virus spread through the boat. They were the only ones who had antibodies at the beginning of the trip.

[IMG alt="The American Dynasty, carrying 122 crew, returned to shore in May after 18 days at sea when a crew member became ill enough to need hospitalization. "]
The American Dynasty, carrying 122 crew, returned to shore in May after 18 days at sea when a crew member became ill enough to need hospitalization. Credit...Michael Brunk/nwlens.com

By [Apoorva Mandavilli]('https://www.nytimes.com/by/apoorva-mandavilli')
[LIST]
[*]Aug. 19, 2020
[/LIST]

A fishing vessel that left Seattle in May returned with an unexpected catch: the first direct evidence in humans that antibodies to the coronavirus can thwart infection.

More than a hundred crew members aboard the American Dynasty were stricken by the infection over 18 days at sea. But three sailors [who initially carried antibodies remained virus-free,]('https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.08.13.20173161v1') according to a new report.

Although the study is small, it addresses one of the most important questions in the pandemic: whether the immune response to one bout with the virus protects against reinfection.

“Knowing the answer to this question is critical for vaccine design and epidemiology,” [tweeted Jesse Bloom]('https://twitter.com/jbloom_lab/status/1294378351809855490'), an evolutionary biologist at the Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center in Seattle and one of the study’s authors.

The study was posted online last week and has not yet been published in a peer-reviewed journal. Still, the finding set off optimistic chatter among scientists, who have been relying on monkey studies for evidence of antibodies’ potency.

“I thought it was very exciting — good enough news that I was telling my family about it,” said Michal Tal, an immunologist at Stanford University who was not involved in the work.

Several research teams have reported that an encounter with the virus triggers a robust immune response in most people, including in those who may have been only mildly ill. And the vaccine candidates now in trials also seem to elicit strong neutralizing antibodies, the kind that can block the virus.

But the amount of those antibodies needed to prevent the virus from returning is unclear. Scientists measure neutralizing antibodies in titers, an indication of their concentration in the blood.

The three sailors who remained protected from the virus had widely varying titers; two had only moderate quantities, a finding the researchers said was reassuring.

“People have been so worried about the titers, and the titers going down,” Dr. Alexander Greninger, a virologist at the University of Washington in Seattle, said.

The results indicate even moderate titers prevented reinfection in a situation in which exposure to the virus was high, he said: “These are attainable titers, right? Hopefully, it’ll be helpful to see, and makes make me very optimistic about the vaccines.”

The American Dynasty carried 113 men and nine women. All crew members had been tested for both virus and antibodies as part of a routine screening before setting sail. (The researchers did not have access to the results from two members.)

The trawler returned to shore after 18 days at sea when a crew member became ill enough to need hospitalization. The sailors were tested for the presence of virus and antibodies again and for up to 50 days after their return.

The three sailors confirmed to have neutralizing antibodies did not test positive for the virus during the course of the study; 103 of the remaining 117 became infected.

These numbers may be small, but they’re highly significant, Dr. Greninger said.

“A lot of people, when they see this are like, ‘Oh come on, it could be due to random chance,’” he said. In fact, the likelihood that the results are just chance is extremely low, he added.

Other experts agreed. “Just looking at the numbers, it becomes clear that it’s unlikely that all of these three people were protected by chance,” said Florian Krammer, an immunologist at the Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai in New York.

Now for some good news, directly contributed by fishermen!!

[SIZE=7]This Trawler’s Haul: Evidence That Antibodies Block the Coronavirus[/SIZE]

Three crew members aboard were spared when the virus spread through the boat. They were the only ones who had antibodies at the beginning of the trip.

[IMG alt="The American Dynasty, carrying 122 crew, returned to shore in May after 18 days at sea when a crew member became ill enough to need hospitalization. "]
The American Dynasty, carrying 122 crew, returned to shore in May after 18 days at sea when a crew member became ill enough to need hospitalization. Credit...Michael Brunk/nwlens.com

By [Apoorva Mandavilli]('https://www.nytimes.com/by/apoorva-mandavilli')
[LIST]
[*]Aug. 19, 2020
[/LIST]

A fishing vessel that left Seattle in May returned with an unexpected catch: the first direct evidence in humans that antibodies to the coronavirus can thwart infection.

More than a hundred crew members aboard the American Dynasty were stricken by the infection over 18 days at sea. But three sailors [who initially carried antibodies remained virus-free,]('https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.08.13.20173161v1') according to a new report.

Although the study is small, it addresses one of the most important questions in the pandemic: whether the immune response to one bout with the virus protects against reinfection.

“Knowing the answer to this question is critical for vaccine design and epidemiology,” [tweeted Jesse Bloom]('https://twitter.com/jbloom_lab/status/1294378351809855490'), an evolutionary biologist at the Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center in Seattle and one of the study’s authors.

The study was posted online last week and has not yet been published in a peer-reviewed journal. Still, the finding set off optimistic chatter among scientists, who have been relying on monkey studies for evidence of antibodies’ potency.

“I thought it was very exciting — good enough news that I was telling my family about it,” said Michal Tal, an immunologist at Stanford University who was not involved in the work.

Several research teams have reported that an encounter with the virus triggers a robust immune response in most people, including in those who may have been only mildly ill. And the vaccine candidates now in trials also seem to elicit strong neutralizing antibodies, the kind that can block the virus.

But the amount of those antibodies needed to prevent the virus from returning is unclear. Scientists measure neutralizing antibodies in titers, an indication of their concentration in the blood.

The three sailors who remained protected from the virus had widely varying titers; two had only moderate quantities, a finding the researchers said was reassuring.

“People have been so worried about the titers, and the titers going down,” Dr. Alexander Greninger, a virologist at the University of Washington in Seattle, said.

The results indicate even moderate titers prevented reinfection in a situation in which exposure to the virus was high, he said: “These are attainable titers, right? Hopefully, it’ll be helpful to see, and makes make me very optimistic about the vaccines.”

The American Dynasty carried 113 men and nine women. All crew members had been tested for both virus and antibodies as part of a routine screening before setting sail. (The researchers did not have access to the results from two members.)

The trawler returned to shore after 18 days at sea when a crew member became ill enough to need hospitalization. The sailors were tested for the presence of virus and antibodies again and for up to 50 days after their return.

The three sailors confirmed to have neutralizing antibodies did not test positive for the virus during the course of the study; 103 of the remaining 117 became infected.

These numbers may be small, but they’re highly significant, Dr. Greninger said.

“A lot of people, when they see this are like, ‘Oh come on, it could be due to random chance,’” he said. In fact, the likelihood that the results are just chance is extremely low, he added.

Other experts agreed. “Just looking at the numbers, it becomes clear that it’s unlikely that all of these three people were protected by chance,” said Florian Krammer, an immunologist at the Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai in New York.

so I guess it would be cool to fish the Mudhole with two friends who have already had COVID & have antibodies - cool
(y)

so I guess it would be cool to fish the Mudhole with two friends who have already had COVID & have antibodies - cool
(y)

well, i apologize in advance for this but.......
Yes, it would be for those of us that fish:rolleyes::eek::D:p8-)

well, i apologize in advance for this but.......
Yes, it would be for those of us that fish:rolleyes::eek::D:p8-)

take a hike

So got back from our Thursday night soccer practice with the kids. Parents were chatting up. Afterwards, we discussed some of the school reopening plans. One of the parents mentioned that one of the school districts in Nassau County, (either Bethpage or Jericho) is going to have the kids were Face Sheilds throughout the day. I guess kind of like a welders face shield (without the helmet) and made of Plexiglas. Along those lines I saw that one of the major universities just received FDA approval for their face shield design.

As expected, there was a lot of "WTF is going on" comments from every parent.