Coronavirus

They should just release the names of the states [SIZE=4]NOT[/SIZE] on the list

[URL unfurl="true"]https://13wham.com/news/local/43-states-now-on-new-yorks-covid-19-travel-advisory-list[/URL]

Nutty Idea - how do you monitor/enforce this?

When my mother passed last month in Virginia - my brothers from Connecticut & NY came down to VA to see her before she passed. Both had to flee VA in under 24 hours or face a 14 day quarantine when they returned to their respective home state - which they did.

Does the virus keep track of time? Does it think of infecting someone & then go "Whoa. Wait a minute. They've only been here for 23 hours. We gotta wait another two hours before infecting them. Dang!"

That is where the stupidity starts - trying to uniformly apply the numbers without taking into account total population.

Massachusetts could be dropped from the list with a 9.0 per 100k avg positive test rate, while Rhode Island stays on with an 11.0 per 100k. Since MA population is roughly 7x that of RI, almost 7x the number of sick people in MA could travel to NY without quarantining - but the much smaller overall number of Rhode Islanders possibly positive would have to quarantine.

That is where the stupidity starts - trying to uniformly apply the numbers without taking into account total population.

Massachusetts could be dropped from the list with a 9.0 per 100k avg positive test rate, while Rhode Island stays on with an 11.0 per 100k. Since MA population is roughly 7x that of RI, almost 7x the number of sick people in MA could travel to NY without quarantining - but the much smaller overall number of Rhode Islanders possibly positive would have to quarantine.

I would amend your comment to say it's more important to regionalize the infection rate data...

The "conventional wisdom" that NY is employing is that a positive test rate > 10% per 100,000 over a 7-day rolling average is a indicator of of rampant community transmission and that's what they're concerned about.

IMO, that number over an entire state is not a great metric since it's most likely that your most heavily populated areas, your major cities, are driving that number. In the case of MA, it could very well be that folks from Boston or Worcester are well above that 9% number, but get diluted out from the folks out in the Berkshires. That being said, it's tough, well nigh impossible, to keep track of things more regionally.

I would think a "safer" number would be 5%, but that would make NY's list of banned states closer to 46, NY, NJ, CT, & ME. Keep in mind that they realized that there would be no way to control travel from NJ and CT...

I would think a "safer" number would be 5%, but that would make NY's list of banned states closer to 46, NY, NJ, CT, & ME. Keep in mind that they realized that there would be no way to control travel from NJ and CT...

NJ and CT would make the state travel advisory list released today, but Cuomo conceded that it would be impossible to add them to the list because of the amount of interactions between those states and NY.

So the two closest states with infection rates that are high enough to require quarantining - they are allowed to come and go as they please.

[HEADING=2]Yup, we've turned the corner, heading straight into the abyss...[/HEADING]
[HEADING=2][/HEADING]
[HEADING=2]‘It Has Hit Us With a Vengeance’: Virus Surges Again Across the United States[/HEADING]
Unlike earlier outbreaks concentrated in the Northeast and South, the virus is simmering at a worrisome level in most regions.

As the coronavirus races across the country, it has reached every corner of a nursing home in Kansas, infecting all 62 residents inside. There are so few hospital beds available in North Dakota that patients sick with the virus are being ferried by ambulance to facilities 100 miles away. And in Ohio, more people are hospitalized with the virus than at any other time during the pandemic.

After weeks of warnings that cases were again on the rise, a third surge of coronavirus infection has firmly taken hold in the United States. The nation is [averaging 59,000 new cases a day]('https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-us-cases.html'), the most since the beginning of August, and the country is on pace to record the most new daily cases of the entire pandemic in the coming days.

But if earlier surges were defined by acute and concentrated outbreaks — in the Northeast this spring, and in the South during the summer — the virus is now simmering at a worrisome level across nearly the entire country. Colorado, Illinois, Kentucky, Michigan, Montana, New Mexico, North Dakota, Ohio, South Dakota, Utah, Wisconsin and Wyoming each set seven-day case records on Tuesday. Even New Jersey, once a model for bringing the virus under control, has seen [cases double over the past month]('https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/19/nyregion/nj-virus-cases.html').

“It is a really dangerous time,” said Dr. Tom Inglesby, an infectious-disease expert at the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health.

“The majority of states are on the rise,” he said. And at the same time, “there are very few places where things are stable and going down.”

The latest wave threatens to be the worst of the pandemic yet, coming as cooler weather is forcing people indoors and as many Americans report feeling [exhausted by months of restrictions]('https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/17/us/coronavirus-pandemic-fatigue.html'). Unlike earlier waves, which were met with shutdown orders and mask mandates, the country has shown little appetite for widespread new restrictions.

who’s da publisher... C22...

who’s da publisher... C22...

Better yet, here are the raw data if you want to attempt to make Chicken Salad out of Chicken Chit...

[Tracking - Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Center]('https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/data')

After that you could go to the individual states' CDC websites for info on individual breakouts, like this one if you're interested in reading up about Kansas' nursing home outbreak, [COVID-19 Cases in Kansas | KDHE COVID-19]('https://www.coronavirus.kdheks.gov/160/COVID-19-in-Kansas'), or this one if you care to read up on North Dakota ICUs, North Dakota Coronavirus Cases

try not to be depressed wit da dark winter coming, Maine wasn’t included on dat list... cellie...

Fauci warned about the fall season back in April

[[FONT=book antiqua]Key points[/FONT]]('https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/28/fauci-warns-us-could-be-in-for-a-bad-fall-if-coronavirus-treatments-dont-work.html')

[LIST]
[]The U.S. “could be in for a bad fall” if researchers don’t find an effective treatment to fight the coronavirus by then, White House health advisor Dr. Anthony Fauci said Tuesday.*
[]The virus will certainly make a comeback in the U.S. even as cases begin to stabilize, Fauci said during an interview with The Economic Club of Washington, D.C.*
[*]
[/LIST]
Weird is that the article mentions 212,000 dead worldwide - we have that in the U.S. alone now.

try not to be depressed wit da dark winter coming, Maine wasn’t included on dat list... cellie...

I love cold, snowy winters!! Just hope we get frequent, large snowfalls this year. I'm looking forward to getting my arse off the couch and explore the woods by going snowshoeing. It's great fun and I've been able to convince my exercise-resistant brain that it is NOT exercise.

Maine COVID's 7-day Average Positivity Rate per 100,000 Residents at ~ 0.5% is the lowest in the US. Unfortunately, we'll probably top 6,000 YTD cases today, but we've only had 146 deaths YTD. This is NOT due to dumb luck, a small population, nor benefits of having moose around, it's because the Guv listened to her exemplary, in my professional opinion, CDC Director and pretty much shut things down.

That being said, in a tourist-dependent state economy like Maine has, there will be many shuttered stores, hotels and restaurants; there is no denying that the economy will suffer. On the other hand, Maine, not Florida, is the "Oldest" state in the US. In light of that, erring on the side of public safety over the economy is probably the correct way to go.

[SIZE=6]Just to restate this grim news once again...[/SIZE]

I hate to belabor this point as I know I've said it before, but once an effective vaccine has been approved and mass-vaccinations begin we WILL NOT go immediately revert to the "Pre-life Normal of 2019".

Even though NOBODY wants to hear or believe it, if a vaccine was approved today, 2021 WILL LOOK MUCH LIKE 2020, with mask wearing, social distancing, economic turmoil, grim CDC reports, etc.

I wouldn't be planning any travel in 2021. AAMOF I've got an October 2021 overseas trip that I'll be rebooking soon and will probably rebook a spring 2022 trip also, both of which that were originally 2020 trips.

I'm quite skeptical that we'll ever get back to life as we knew it prior to 2020. Wearing masks might be something we all do in the future when we're out in crowds, something that Asians have been doing for years. Shunning crowds and crowded indoor gatherings, an innate reaction by myself, will probably be a good idea for everyone.

And don't forget, COVID-19 was not a freak incident. Hopefully there will never be another pandemic like this, but if you believe that, there's a nice bridge between Manhattan and Brooklyn you might be interested to invest in...

On the other hand, Maine, not Florida, is the "Oldest" state in the US. In light of that, erring on the side of public safety over the economy is probably the correct way to go.

LOL, a [SIZE=4]LOT[/SIZE] less old people though....more than 4 million

[SIZE=6]Just to restate this grim news once again...[/SIZE]

I hate to belabor this point as I know I've said it before, but once an effective vaccine has been approved and mass-vaccinations begin we WILL NOT go immediately revert to the "Pre-life Normal of 2019".

Even though NOBODY wants to hear or believe it, if a vaccine was approved today, 2021 WILL LOOK MUCH LIKE 2020, with mask wearing, social distancing, economic turmoil, grim CDC reports, etc.

I wouldn't be planning any travel in 2021. AAMOF I've got an October 2021 overseas trip that I'll be rebooking soon and will probably rebook a spring 2022 trip also, both of which that were originally 2020 trips.

I'm quite skeptical that we'll ever get back to life as we knew it prior to 2020. Wearing masks might be something we all do in the future when we're out in crowds, something that Asians have been doing for years. Shunning crowds and crowded indoor gatherings, an innate reaction by myself, will probably be a good idea for everyone.

And don't forget, COVID-19 was not a freak incident. Hopefully there will never be another pandemic like this, but if you believe that, there's a nice bridge between Manhattan and Brooklyn you might be interested to invest in...

Not perfect there either

I love cold, snowy winters!! Just hope we get frequent, large snowfalls this year. I'm looking forward to getting my arse off the couch and explore the woods by going snowshoeing. It's great fun and I've been able to convince my exercise-resistant brain that it is NOT exercise.

Maine COVID's 7-day Average Positivity Rate per 100,000 Residents at ~ 0.5% is the lowest in the US. Unfortunately, we'll probably top 6,000 YTD cases today, but we've only had 146 deaths YTD. This is NOT due to dumb luck, a small population, nor benefits of having moose around, it's because the Guv listened to her exemplary, in my professional opinion, CDC Director and pretty much shut things down.

That being said, in a tourist-dependent state economy like Maine has, there will be many shuttered stores, hotels and restaurants; there is no denying that the economy will suffer. On the other hand, Maine, not Florida, is the "Oldest" state in the US. In light of that, erring on the side of public safety over the economy is probably the correct way to go.

[URL unfurl="true"]https://www.cbsnews.com/news/covid-maine-wedding-7-deaths-residents-angry/[/URL]

LOL, a [SIZE=4]LOT[/SIZE] less old people though....more than 4 million

I'd gladly "cede" that title to the Sunshine State. I bet all the FL plates I see in the summer up here are "Snowbirds" that really "live" up here, but have their FL residency for the tax advantages. If Maine were to ever stop taxing retirement income over $20K, I bet the gap between ME and FL would rise.

My county happens to be the "oldest" county in Maine too so I live in County Old Fart in the Old Fart State...

But do all the women folk have blue hair there ?

Gotta reside for 6 months plus one day for tax purposes in Florida, documentation required... cellie...

But do all the women folk have blue hair there ?

Actually 50 Shades of Gray!!! :D:D:D

Once a native Mainette reaches 55ish, they stop dying their hair!!

Gotta reside for 6 months plus one day for tax purposes in Florida, documentation required... cellie...

Noted, and every time I do the financial analysis the $$ savings never gets past having to tolerate FL even for 2 weeks...

I’m not sure what ya problem wit Florida is, fishing year round wit many, many more varieties... cellfish...

I’m not sure what ya problem wit Florida is, fishing year round wit many, many more varieties... cellfish...

I got 2 major problems, related to my thermal and crowd intolerance.

If Hell freezes over, then I'd consider FL to be within my optimal temperature range and then the masses would likely have moved out.