1. Satellite images and surface observations indicate that the low
pressure system located a couple of hundred miles east of the coast
of South Carolina is gradually becoming better defined. Although
the associated shower and thunderstorm activity is currently
disorganized, environmental conditions could briefly become
marginally conducive for the low to acquire subtropical
characteristics by Saturday night and early Sunday. By early next
week, the low is expected to interact with a frontal boundary,
which should end the opportunity for any subtropical or tropical
formation. The low is forecast to meander offshore the Carolinas
today, and then slowly move back toward the west-northwest and
northwest on Saturday, bringing the system closer to the coast of
North Carolina. Interests along the coast of North and South
Carolina should monitor the progress of this system. Regardless of
development, intermittent periods of locally heavy rains and gusty
winds will affect eastern portions of the Carolinas through the
weekend. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled
to investigate the system Saturday afternoon, if necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.
Hurricane Awareness
This is the last update on the system near the Carolinas . I will keep this thread open until November 30th. 51 days the season will come to an end. Will check every six hours and hopefully this will be the end. Going forward will only post if a depression or storm form
we're experiencing minor tidal flooding here due to the storm
No moon tides with this system.
Persistent east winds with this system
[HEADING=2]‘Saildrone’ Footage Offers Rare Peek Inside a Category 4 Hurricane[/HEADING]
The 23-foot crewless vessel pierced the eyewall of Hurricane Sam and captured stunning images as the storm barreled through the Atlantic Ocea
By Saildrone/noaa, Via Reuters
The video looks like it could be b-roll from the [2000 film “The Perfect Storm.”]('
')The camera is tossed around by winds topping 120 miles per hour and waves towering to 50 feet, all amid dense clouds.
But this isn’t Hollywood. The 28-second clip shot by a crewless vessel on Thursday was a [first-of-its-kind glimpse]('https://www.noaa.gov/news-release/world-first-ocean-drone-captures-video-from-inside-hurricane') from inside a major hurricane, scientists from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said.
The 23-foot vessel pierced the eyewall of Hurricane Sam as it barreled through the Atlantic Ocean. Sam, which peaked as a Category 4 storm, was [downgraded to a Category 2]('https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT3+shtml/031446.shtml') storm on Sunday but was still packing winds of up to 100 m.p.h.
“This is a truly groundbreaking accomplishment because we’ve shown for the first time that it’s possible to send an uncrewed, remote-controlled vehicle on the surface of the ocean directly into a major hurricane — one of the harshest environments on Earth — and we showed that we can retrieve this extremely valuable data from within the hurricane immediately,” Greg Foltz, a NOAA scientist who was involved with the effort, said in an interview on Saturday.
“That’s never been done,” he added.
Dr. Foltz said the knowledge gleaned was critical to improving storm forecasting and reducing the loss of life in coastal communities at a time when [climate change]('https://www.nytimes.com/2021/10/07/technology/google-youtube-ads-climate-change-misinformation.html') is making hurricanes stronger.
The drones, he said, measure key processes that drive hurricane intensification, which is defined as maximum sustained winds strengthening by 30 knots or more within a day. This includes quantifying the exchange of energy between the ocean and the hurricane and the ocean’s frictional effect on the storm, he said.
“This really opens up a whole new realm of possibilities for observing a hurricane,” he said.
Rapid intensification of hurricanes poses a serious threat to coastal communities, Dr. Foltz said.
For example, Hurricane Michael was forecast to arrive in October 2018 as a tropical storm but instead furiously [amped up]('https://www.nytimes.com/2018/10/10/us/hurricane-michael-florida.html') and smashed into the Florida Panhandle with winds topping 155 m.p.h.
The phenomenon “doesn’t happen very often but can be dangerous and is very poorly understood,” he said.
“For our first boat to get through a Category 4 hurricane without any damage is phenomenal from an engineering perspective,” the chief executive of Saildrone said.Credit...Saildrone
The vehicle that made it into Sam is one of five [“Saildrones”]('https://www.saildrone.com/technology/vehicles') that have been gathering data in the Atlantic during hurricane season to better understand the storms.
The hurricane program is the product of a partnership between NOAA and Saildrones Inc., a company based in Alameda, Calif., that manufactures and operates the vehicles. The company [got its start]('https://www.nytimes.com/2016/09/05/technology/no-sailors-needed-robot-sailboats-scour-the-oceans-for-data.html') with $2.5 million in grants from [Eric Schmidt, Google’s former chief executive]('https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/02/technology/eric-schmidt-pentagon-google.html'), and his wife, Wendy Schmidt.
The company’s autonomous vehicles have been deployed for ocean mapping, maritime security and other uses from the Arctic to the Antarctic. But getting inside a hurricane was the “last frontier” of the drones’ survivability, Richard Jenkins, the company’s chief executive, said.
“For our first boat to get through a Category 4 hurricane without any damage is phenomenal from an engineering perspective,” said Mr. Jenkins, a sailor himself. “These are conditions that would sink almost any ship.”
He described the Saildrone as unsinkable and submersible. It “could be held under water for a long time and pop back up,” he said. The Saildrone wing technology allows a mission to last up to 12 months without the need to return to land for maintenance or refueling, the company said.
NOAA has a long-term commitment to advancing drone technology and envisions a fleet of Saildrones operating in the Atlantic during hurricane season each year, Dr. Foltz said. He has short-term plans as well.
“We still have about a month to go in the peak of the hurricane season,” he said. “We hope to get another Saildrone into a hurricane and get more valuable measurements this year.”
[MEDIA=youtube]cGFry-u66cQ[/MEDIA]
Veni. Vidi. Cepi. - with apologies to Gaius Julius Caesar
30 percent chance next 5 days will update if this becomes a depression or storm
20 percent chance next five days if the percentage goes up I will update.
It's been very quiet in the tropics
2pm next update if conditions warrant
But, but, but... Global warming!
I’m not sure if it’s more or less dis season but it feels like less…
didnt they say it would be above average… cellfish…
... sand under my bare feet is better than subway steps with steel toe boots on... cellfish...
.
1. A non-tropical low pressure system is expected to form off the east
coast of the United States during the next day or so. The frontal
low will move generally north-northeastward through the middle of
the week, and the system will likely bring rain and wind impacts to
portions of the mid-Atlantic and northeast U.S. coast. By the end of
the week, the low could acquire some tropical or subtropical
characteristics while it moves eastward away from the northeast U.S.
coast. For more information on this system, including storm watches
and warnings, see products issued by your local National Weather
Service office and High Seas Forecasts issued by the Ocean
Prediction Center.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.
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